Obama’s Indian Odyssey

‘Should the West be scared?’

This question was posed on a BBC panel discussion earlier this week, in the light of President Obama’s recently concluded visit to India and Prime Minister Cameron’s trip to China. While this particular discussion was limited, it has been interesting to observe the somewhat dismissive coverage in the British media about the visit. Interesting, given the takeaways from the Cameron visit to India in July this year (see earlier blog).

Having personally been involved with a number of head of state visits to India over the last two decades, including President Clinton’s visit to India in March 2000, here is my take on the messages for business – both overt and covert – from President Obama’s game-changing and mesmerising visit to India.

1. Recognition of a new world order. During his trip, President Obama has peppered each of his speeches with unequivocal assertion to the fact that relationships have changed and that ‘we need to change with them’. His comment that the US-India partnership will be the ‘defining partnership of the 21st century’, his description of India as ‘indispensable’ and a ‘cornerstone’ of US policy in Asia and his wish to see India take up a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, speak volumes of the paradigm shift that has taken place in the mindset of the world’s largest economy. To quote President Obama, 'India isn't emerging, it has emerged'.
2. It’s (also) the economy, stupid. A country’s chief executive is responsible not only for a country’s physical security but also its economic security. A point that President Obama has not been allowed to forget for a single day since he embarked on his journey to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The result – consciously choosing to kick off his historic visit with India’s commercial capital – Mumbai – announcing business deals worth US$15 billion, supporting 70,000 jobs in the United States, by the close of the three days of his visit.
3. Knowledge is the new global currency, technology the game-changer, people the glue, youth the catalyst.
4. Protectionism doesn’t pay. Growth will come through trade with Asia. It is inevitable and not a zero-sum game. Global economic integration has promise and potential. We need to negotiate this changing relationship.

Or, as President Obama’s icon, Mahatma Gandhi, succinctly observed, ‘be the change you want to see in the world’.

Is India becoming the land of luxury?

Last week, I came across a news article that stopped me in my tracks.  Apparently, the world's fastest car – the Bugatti Veyron 16.4 Grand Sport, for the uninitiated – is all set to hit Indian roads on October 28th. While I appreciate the need for speed in the dynamic economy that is India, what really took me aback was the price tag – an eye-watering `120 million (i.e. approximately US$2.7 million). (That one can probably count on one hand the number of Indian roads where an owner will actually be able to test the car to its potential is a different matter and one that I will leave for another time.) 

The chosen date for the Bugatti India launch – October 28th – is an auspicious day.  No, I have not checked my crystal ball. Neither have I consulted an astrologer.  However, I am sure Mukesh Ambani and his family have.  It just so happens that October 28th is also the day that the elder Ambani and his family are having a house-warming party to celebrate their new, US$1 billion residence in Mumbai.  While the family is being as under-stated as you can be about a 27-floor house for a family of six, ‘Antilia’ (the mansion) is understandably attracting much attention.

So, are India’s rich simply getting richer and leaving their brethren behind?  Apparently not.

 

1. India has the fastest-growing population of millionaires in the world, according to Forbes.
2. India's wealth has tripled to US$3.5 trillion in the last decade, according to Credit Suisse. Their analysis highlights that by 2015, India's wealth could double to around $6.4 trillion. The report notes that, contrary to popular belief, India's wealth distribution is skewed towards the lower end of the wealth pyramid.
3. Wealth held by individuals in India is said to be growing at a 26 per cent compounded rate, more than four times the global average.

The implications for the luxury market are obvious in terms of potential, though not so obvious in terms of strategy.  In fact, study after study has shown that in order to succeed in India, luxury brands need to localise their marketing strategies. 

This begets the question, is Indian wealth becoming typified by the motto ‘if you’ve got it, flaunt it’?  Not necessarily. 

Technology czar Shiv Nadar has committed to put aside well over 10% of his wealth for philanthropic ventures. Soap-to-software magnate Azim Premji has recently announced that he will personally be setting up a US$1 billion education endowment fund.  Ratan Tata has announced a US$ 50 million donation to Harvard Business School, while Anand Mahindra has announced US$10 million to the same alma mater.

Yes, wealth is coming out of the Indian closet.  Is this unique to India? No.  According to a recent study by the Asian Development Bank, by 2030, Asia’s consumers will spend US$32 trillion, accounting for 43% of global consumption.

Perhaps M/s Bugatti’s parent, Volkswagen, hopes to realise its literal translation - ‘the people’s car’ - in the world’s most populous continent.

If you would like to understand more about how to increase the growth for your organisation by deepening its engagement with India, do write in at ratika.jain@whiteowladvisory.com.

Business Lessons from India’s Commonwealth Games

The ongoing Commonwealth Games in India have been truly record-breaking – both within the sports arena and without.  As this is a business blog, let me focus on the latter.

Personally, I think the Commonwealth Games have been good for India. 

Good because Indian sport, at the end of the day, has benefited in a myriad of ways.

Good because India has shown what it can do, literally, against all odds. 

Good because the Games have served as a reality check - for India and for the rest of the (business) world - on the complexities of doing business with India. What are these lessons?

1. Execution, execution, execution.  While I have written about this in a previous blog, the reality is that attention to detail and contingency planning is mission critical.
2. Governance is key. Some commentators have remarked that the CWG is a case study in the difference between Indian public sector ineptitude and private sector prowess. The reality is that this generalisation is simplistic.  Fundamentally, governance and accountability processes need to be water-tight.
3. Media and its management matters.  At no time in the history of the Games have they received so much publicity and column-centimetre coverage, in the Commonwealth and beyond, than in 2010. Thanks to the internet and real-time reporting, a common garden snake is able to morph into a King Cobra in a matter of minutes, if not seconds. Understand the dynamics of new-age media.
4. When traditional solutions fail, improvise (jugaad).  The CWG 2010 is probably the first international sporting event that has involved the official deployment of trained animals (‘langurs’) to ward off other stray animals.  Keep an open mind and think of innovative, ‘fit-for-purpose’ solutions.
5. Some things can not be controlled, e.g. Mother Nature.  When it rains, it literally does pour.  Delhi recorded its most intense monsoon season compared to the last 30 years, bringing with it the multitude of accompanying health hazards.  Anticipate, be prepared.
6. A lot can be achieved in 24 hours.  See linked article. Need I say more? 
7. A great test bed.  In an earlier blog, I highlighted the global challenge of managing complexity.  To borrow a phrase from the popular song ‘Empire State of Mind’ – “since I made it here, I can make in anywhere” could well become India’s new business anthem.

If you would like to increase the growth for your organisation by deepening its engagement with India, do write in at ratika.jain@whiteowladvisory.com.

Seven trends defining India’s growth story

In the last one week, I’ve come across some very interesting research – some slightly dated, the majority quite recent.  Yet, each of these individual threads, coincidentally, supports the other.  What does the emerging tapestry reveal?

1. The undisputable re-emergence of Asia, specifically China and India (see Angus Maddison, Hans Rosling, McKinsey, International Monetary Fund).  China’s recent eclipsing of Japan to gain recognition as the world’s second largest economy is par for the course as is increased intra-regional trade.

2. Increasing domestic prosperity 

• For the first time ever, the number of high-income households in India has exceeded the number of low-income ones (reference NCAER);
• Sales of trucks and buses — an indicator of economic activity — rose 37 per cent to 51,481 units in July 2010;
• Overall automobile sales grew at 31.50 per cent to 1,237,461 units in July 2010; and
• Mobile penetration is projected to reach 55.9 percent in 2010, increasing to 72.5 percent in 2012. 

3.  India’s growing engagement with the world

• Expanding share of world trade - 2.8% in 2009 compared to 0.6% in 1998
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows increasing steadily

4.  Heightened business focus; less emotional baggage

• India Inc's merger and acquisitions have touched nearly US$ 50 billion level over January-July 2010, over three times the total in 2009. 
• Strategic rationale driving corporate expansion (Fortis, Piramal Healthcare)
• Robust succession planning process (Tata Sons, Larsen and Toubro, Infosys)

5.  An aspirational, entrepreneurial, young talent pool

• 72 % of India's population is below the age of 40, 47% of Indians are under the age of 20 and 10% of the world population is an Indian under 25
• According to Goldman Sachs, India will add 110 mn people to global workforce by 2020.
• The Indian Government plans to increase the gross enrolment ratio from the current 12.4% to 30% by 2020 and further up to 40% by 2025. 

6.  Increasingly pervasive influence of technology and media

• Reverse / low-cost innovation – Tata, GE, Nokia leading the way
• The media and entertainment sector is estimated to be growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 13 per cent over the next few years; rollout of 3G by the private sector over the next few months is expected to be a game-changer for business and society.

7.  Growing economic maturity and self-confidence

• India has become the fifth country to have a unique symbol (`) for its currency
• Foreign exchange reserves total US$ 284 billion
• Is forging its own set of strategic partnerships – USA, Singapore, Myanmar, Africa, Afghanistan - to name a few.

In sum, the tapestry presents much potential.  Yet, as anyone remotely familiar with India knows, it is far from being an easy market to do business with.  Any truthful case study of an international company doing business with India is peppered with anecdotes about how they have had to revise their India strategy.  Poor governance and infrastructure remain areas of concern.  

But then again, if India were an economist’s ‘perfect’ market, it wouldn’t be witnessing the extraordinary growth rates it has.